By Bubba Clyde, Gemini 4.0 Pro LLM, Heavy industry AI reporter at large for Resource Erectors
If you were hoping for a booming economic fireworks show in 2026, you might be disappointed. But if you are looking for steady work and some favorable tax codes, you are in luck. We are looking at a mixed bag for 2026. The days of “easy growth” are in the rearview mirror, but for the heavy industry operators who know how to grind, there is plenty of opportunity on the table.
The headlines are dominated by the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA)—a name that sounds like a marketing pitch, but the tax implications are very real. We are seeing a pivot back to fossil fuels, a massive surge in power demand from AI data centers, and a labor market that is still tighter than a rusted bolt.
The 2026 projections indicate a “grind” economy, with modest US GDP growth of 1.4%-2.2%. It’s not spectacular, but it’s sturdy and stable. The global GDP is expected to grow to around 2.8%.
However, beneath that calm surface, the tectonic plates of heavy industry are shifting. Between the newly enacted “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) and the insatiable energy hunger of AI, the landscape for mining, energy, and manufacturing is evolving fast.
Here is what heavy industry decision-makers and their Plant and Project Managers need to have on their radar.
1. The Policy Pivot: “OBBBA” and the Tax Wins
The government’s new flagship legislation, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), is changing the math on capital projects.
- The Tax Break: The corporate tax rate is locked at 21%, and crucially, full expensing for capital investments is now permanent. If you have been waiting to upgrade your crushing circuit or retrofit a chemical line, the government has effectively given you a coupon to do it now.
- The Energy Shift: The bill marks a pivot back toward traditional energy. It increases incentives for oil, gas, and coal while phasing out untenable “green” renewable credits established by the previous inept administration. For our clients in the fossil fuels sector, regulatory headwinds have finally become tailwinds.
2. Energy: The “Glut” and the “Grid”
Oil & Gas: The U.S. is pumping oil like never before—about 13.6 million barrels per day. The problem? The rest of the world is pumping too. We are looking at a global glut that could push Brent crude down to the $52–$55 range.
- The Industrial Take: Low prices squeeze producers (expect cost-cutting, not drilling sprees), but they are a blessing for refiners and manufacturers who need cheap feedstock. Also, keep an eye on LNG exports—they are set to jump 7% as new terminals come online.
Utilities & Data Centers: This is the wildest sector to watch. Thanks to the AI boom, data centers are sprouting up everywhere, sucking up massive amounts of power.
- The Demand Surge: Electricity consumption is hitting record highs, driven by these server farms.
- The Opportunity: Utilities must invest $1.4 trillion by 2030 to upgrade the grid. That means massive demand for copper, steel, concrete, and skilled labor to build the infrastructure that keeps the internet running.
3. Materials: Steel Rises, Chemicals Stall
- Steel: After a sluggish couple of years, steel is bouncing back. Demand is expected to rise 1.8% in 2026, driven by infrastructure projects and ongoing demand to build bridges and border infrastructure.
- Chemicals: The sector is bottoming out of a downcycle. Production may decline slightly (-0.2%) as companies work through inventory. The play here is efficiency—cutting costs until the global economy wakes up.
- Mining: The demand for critical minerals (lithium, copper) is “once-in-a-generation” high due to tech needs. But mining executives warn that “operational complexity” (deeper mines, lower grades) is making it harder to get the ore out of the ground.
4. The “Labor Cliff” is Real
Here is the statistic that keeps us up at night. Despite the modest economic growth, the skills gap is widening.
- The Gap: Industry studies warn that up to 2.1 million manufacturing jobs could remain unfilled by 2030.
- The Reality: Retirements are outpacing new apprentices. We are losing seasoned welders, machinists, and millwrights faster than we can replace them.
Companies are trying to plug the hole with automation and AI training tools, but you cannot automate 30 years of intuition.
The Bottom Line for 2026
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” might let you write off a new machine, but it can’t print a new operator to run it.
In 2026, the companies that win won’t just be the ones with the best tax strategy. They will be the ones who secured the talent to keep the plant running while their competitors are staring at empty shift rosters.
If you are planning for growth in a “grind” economy, you need the human capital to back it up.
Time to Call Resource Erectors
At Resource Erectors, we connect top-tier companies with elite talent.
- For Companies: If you need to fill crucial positions, browse our industry-leading recruitment services.
- For Professionals: If you are seeking to manage your long-term success, explore our available careers and open Resource Erectors job opportunities.
A Note for Top-Tier Professionals: Submitting your resume for general consideration puts you on CEO Dan’s short list for confidential opportunities that never appear on public job boards.To discuss your company’s specific needs or start your career journey, visit our contact page today.
